South African wine volumes exported to the United States fell 64% between 2023 and the first half of 2026, according to customs data obtained from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC). This compares with a 21% fall for Chile over the same period.
Based on the data the South African decline began before the 30% tariffs were implemented on 1 August 2025, which were subsequently reduced to 12.5% this July, but they exacerbated it through the uncertainty they created, according to Prof Nick Vink.
Wine maturing in barrels at a Stellenbosch cellar. South African producers are carrying inventory close to levels recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic, after two successive above-average harvests and a 64% fall in exports to the United States since 2023, according to US and UK customs and Trade data. PHOTO: Yusuf Kosadia-Hassen
Dr Kandas Cloete, senior analyst of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), told SMF News that a 2025 study, commissioned by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture, found that adding the current duty to existing prices makes South African wine non-competitive in the US market, given that major competitors face lower duty rates.
“The bulk of the impact would be felt at farm gate,” said Cloete.
Distribution and shipping costs remain largely fixed regardless of what producers receive.
“Felt at farm gate” means the impact would hit farmers directly. Cloete said inventory levels are now as high as those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, when trade disruptions halted market access.
Two successive above-average harvests have worsened the pressure to sell inventory, alongside falling global wine consumption and reduced purchasing power, said Cloete.
Prof Nick Vink, an agricultural economist at Stellenbosch University (SU), said approximately 5% of South African wine exports by value go to the US and that the aggregate impact on the sector cannot be measured.
“One of the most important characteristics of good policy is consistency,” he said, comparing the US tariff changes with unscheduled load-shedding.
When policy, intended to create consistency, becomes erratic, it changes the way people, consumers, customers, and producers think. This changes how people plan, Prof Vink said.
Prof Vink gave a comparison to load shedding: “How much more severe the impact would have been if Eskom turned off the power at random. Scheduled load-shedding, given there was not enough power to go around, was a far better alternative. Now think about the US and their esteemed president, who changes tariffs all the time. This creates uncertainty, which makes it difficult to plan ahead,” he said.
He added that labels that lose US shelf space rarely win it back.
Grapes harvested in the Western Cape for win-making. Two successive above-average harvests have added to a surplus already strained by falling US demand, a 12.5% US tariff imposed in July 2026, and declining wine consumption globally according to US and UK customs and trade data. PHOTO: Yusuf Kosadia-Hassen
The US imposed a duty of 12.5% on 24 July under Section 301 of the US Trade Act. This came after the US trade representative concluded that 60 economies, South Africa included, had failed to effectively enforce prohibitions on forced-labour imports, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa.
In the United Kingdom (UK), South Africa held its position.
Wine volumes fell 2% over the same period, and market share rose from 19% to 22.3%, as Australia’s fell by 32%. South Africa’s realised price per litre for bottled wine rose 12% in the UK while falling 20% in the US.
The figures above are pegged to the 2023 financial year. South African share of wine exports expressed as a percentage to the UK rose from 19% to 22.3%. In the United States, wine market share expressed as a percentage fell 64% between 2023 and mid-2026, compared with Chile, which only fell 21%. INFOGRAPHIC: Yusuf Kosadia-Hassen
Siobhan Thompson, CEO of Wines of South Africa (WoSA), said in a written response that the export promotion body funded through a statutory levy on producers attributed the US decline to “a combination of factors rather than a single cause”, including consumer demand changes and distributor consolidation.
Thompson did not say what WoSA spends in the US market or how many South African brands have lost US distribution. She said listing decisions “are ultimately made by individual exporters, importers and their commercial partners”.
SMF News reached out to numerous wine farms in the area; only Spier responded and declined to comment.